"Are you kidding?": we're not making up total losses in federal funding from the state budget

One of the questions that has been swirling quite a bit lately has been: if all the federal money vanishes, can (or can't) the state make up the difference. 

Let me note here that my frame of reference here is Massachusetts, so your local results may vary, but I do think that Governor Healey's response when asked this question--"Are you kidding?"--was accurate. I'm not saying we can't do anything, but I do think the scope of what is supported by federal funds is something that may be a lot to wrap our heads around.

The state budget is itself funded by $16B in federal funding. The budget the Governor just filed for the fiscal year that starts in July is a bit over $60B. For those of us who think in pie charts, that looks like this: 

It's a lot.

Thus, even if the state were to empty the rainy day fund, which is holding about $8B, Massachusetts could not make up the difference. And remember, the rainy day fund took multiple years to fill.

At last week's Ways and Means hearing, Secretary of Administration and Finance Gorzkowicz said, "there may not be the ability to backstop much of what we’re seeing" if there were cuts, though he added that any such action would take the Legislature acting, as they hold the power of the purse. 

This "how much is it?" question was responded to locally here in Worcester as part of this week's city council agenda, in a city council agenda backup found here. Setting aside the aberration of federal pandemic funding, Worcester gets between $75-$100M a year in federal funding. Cityside, much of that is human services and community development. On the school side, it's the names you probably know: USDA free lunch, Title I, IDEA, and so on. You can find the current year numbers in the FY25 WPS budget book, where it looks like this: 

on what the book calls page 102

Remember that both child nutrition and federal grants are federal funds. 
Worcester, locally, is not going to come up with an additional $50M, either.

I share all of this not to send anyone into (further) despair. I think it helps to have a sense of the issue.

It's always worth noting that both Title I and IDEA predated a federal department of education. I also think it is crucial to remember that all these programs fund districts in all states (providing a greater proportion of funding in states that don't spend as much in state and local revenue on education, which runs parallel to what often get termed "red states").