Inflation, inflation, inflation

 As we've been saying around these parts since last fall, the major issue with this year's state budget on school funding is the inflation factor in the foundation budget, and Tuesday, MassBudget released their crunching of the numbers alongside some analysis of what the Governor and Legislature's failure to correct means for all of us.

The two most recent fiscal years, FY 2023 and FY 2024, had levels of inflation that exceeded the cap, reaching roughly 7 percent and 8 percent. In each of these years, the Commonwealth operated with the capped maximum of 4.5 percent, leading to a gap of roughly 6 percentage points collectively over two years.8 As it stands, the current formula is shortchanging the value of the SOA reforms relative to the cost growth now being incurred by Massachusetts schools, contributing to budgetary challenges and shortfalls. Two hundred and nineteen school districts are slated to receive less funding for the coming year than they would with a complete inflation adjustment, an issue that will carry into future allocations and imperil services for students until it is addressed. The average funding gap from unaddressed inflation for these districts is $2.1 million, but the amounts vary greatly across districts – with a maximum of over $28 million in Springfield to just $19,000 in Eastham and Rochester.

They've published a spreadsheet which runs three things:

The first scenario tracks the state aid that would have occurred without passage of the SOA; the second looks at the SOA if it continues to be implemented as it has been so far; and the third demonstrates what funding levels would be if the past two years of missed inflation was fully incorporated into the formula.

Not surprisingly, Worcester, at over $25 million, has the second largest gap in the state. That amount, of course, would have more than eliminated Worcester's budget gap for FY25.

As part of the release, there was a press conference at which Worcester figured prominently: you can read the T&G here, MassLive here, and let me know if you want to read State House News. Via MassLive: 

For Melissa Verdier, president of the Educational Association of Worcester, this year’s budget deficit is the worst she has seen in her over 20 years in the Worcester public schools.

“I’ve never seen this kind of crisis in our budget, or not one that affected so many,” Verdier said at press conference on Tuesday.

In Worcester, around 300 people are being laid off out of a workforce of 5,000 people, including classroom teachers, administrators and non-instructional staff, according to Worcester superintendent Rachel Monárrez.

Unless there is an 11th hour action in conference committee--which seems highly unlikely, as neither chamber took action on inflation in their own budget passage--it seems we've lost this year.

And those staff. And what that represents to our kids.