I have a backlog of "nooo, that's not how this works" comments on budget articles, which I hope to get to, but in the meantime, do read about Moody's outlook for next year. I suspect it doesn't have a lot we don't already know, but sometimes "oh, it isn't just me" can be reassuring:
A main factor for slow revenue growth, Moody’s said, is the expiration of Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief allocations that helped schools recover from pandemic setbacks. American Rescue Plan allocations under ESSER — which at a total of $121.9 billion were the last and largest of the three COVID emergency aid packages approved by Congress for K-12 schools — must be spent by Jan. 28, 2025, unless districts receive a spending extension
That, coupled with rising staffing costs, means the median operating fund balance ratio — the available fund balance as a percentage of operating revenue — is expected to drop from 26% in 2024 to 24% in 2025. According to Moody’s and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, public education employment now exceeds pre-pandemic levels, and compensation growth in K-12 has outpaced the private sector.
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