Why are so many schools facing budget crunches this year?

 subtitle: no, it isn't an ESSER fiscal cliff, and you're not paying attention if you think it is

You don't have to read far this year to see school budgets in Massachusetts (and elsewhere!) are tough this year. I won't regale you with headlines--you can go take your pick if you like--but positions are being cut, programs being cut or downsized, OR (and sometimes "and") overrides being advocated for. 

I know that there were those who are certain that the end of ESSER would signal terrible times in education because those school committees and administrators somehow would miss that the funding was short term. I believe this says more about those who wrote such things than it does about local governance teams.

There are cases where this is pandemic related, at least, insofar as there are more needs--mental health needs, academic needs--than there were (not surprisingly), and districts are trying to respond.

That isn't, from what I have seen, most of it, though.

The first and biggest reason is this: Massachusetts is an expensive place to live, and schools employ lots of people. Somewhere over 70% of any school budget is salaries and benefits, simply because we need to have people to teach children, and feed them, and drive them to school, and care for them if they get hurt or ill, and so forth. 
There is no magic formula--please keep your magic AI to yourself and go read some science fiction--for doing this otherwise.
If you want people to work for you, you have to pay them and ensure they have health care. If you want them to do that in Massachusetts, they have to live close enough to get to where your district is.
I'm not opining here (and won't) about particular deals or negotiations. This is just how it works. There isn't a way around that. 
So yes, employee costs are going up, because the cost of living here is going up.

So are other things: 

• transportation contracts are through the roof, and districts rarely if ever get more than one bid. I have seen both 30% and 40% increases this year
  
  
• out-of-district special education tuition. After the 12.5% increase a few years back, we haven't seen another as large, but it is expensive (and for much of the same reason: people)

This is without getting into the volatility in the utilities (are we in conflict with Canada, where we get electricity?), or supplies for maintenance (see the rest of the world) or federal revenue streams.

And revenue, regardless of if we're talking about the municipal revenue growth factors or about state aid, are not keeping up even close to this.
The inflation rate in the foundation budget is not anywhere close to actual cost increases for school districts.
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While I'm on the topic, a side note: at the Ways and Means hearing on Monday, there was a comment about the Gateways not complaining, with a bit of a sniff that they're seeing much of the increases in the SOA (AS INTENDED). 
Yes, but the SOA isn't doing what it was intended to do for the Gateways, either, as you can see from Mr. Allen's WPS slides. Of the $38M projected increase for WPS for FY26, $17M is SOA. With estimated cost increases of $31M, in a non-SOA year, WPS would be having to cover that with $25M. Of that $25M, half is due to Worcester's student increase this year. Inflation is only a $12M increase. 

The Gateways only aren't complaining YET.
It is going to hit us all.