FY21: Back to the drawing board AGAIN

The Joint Committee on Ways and Means is holding yet another roundtable this morning in hopes of updating what is known about FY21. This is, of course, impacted from last night's round of tweets from President Trump which left the prospects for federal aid for states...unclear? dim? unclear, maybe.
I'll have to jump off (as I'm presenting on Ch. 70, oh irony, at noon, but I'll do what I can here and then catch up later, as needed).

updating as we go
Michlewitz
where our economy has stayed steady and where it has fallen off
uncertainty has been frustrating for all of us "to say the least"
particularly frustrating that the President has cut off negotiations
$92B sent to fed in 2018 alone
President "should stop referencing us as a blue state and start calling us a green state"
in past downturn, MA found itself in a strong position; will not be the case this time

Rodriguez: April roundtable gave a clear sense of challenges
precarious position: still no help from federal government, high unemployment, ravaged by health 
revenues up a meagre 1%
"glaring federal dysfunction and ongoing health emergency"
need to "close an anticipated budget shortfall without federal assistance for at least the foreseeable future."

Secretary Heffernan: recently filed close of FY20 (supplemental budget)
"really base a lot of what we do...on what you all have to say for us today"

DoR Commissioner Geoffrey Snyder testifying: outlook for tax revenues for FY21
Forecasting $25.918B to 28.787B in tax revenue, which could be as high as $5.3B
considerable uncertainty in these forecast
"deep recession"
real GDP decreased by over 4% in first Q, 31.6% in second calendar Q
"naturally" resulted in decline in tax revenue
$2.4T: fiscal support from federal gov't
Move of taxation deadlines from April; "actual collections by themselves did not determine" tax revenues; legislation involved
I cannot even hope to keep up with the numbers he's citing here...going to have to wait to have it in writing...
"confronted with an array of unknowns" for tax collection in FY21
"will generate multiple scenarios on which" tax projections are based
Moody's and IHS Markets have created projections
$7.27B collection for September after adjustment (legislation counted some as FY20)
$69M more than FY20
So far, FY21 agreement has not been revised or adjusted
based on recent projections, DoR now forecasts FY21 in range $25.918B to $28....B
Decline from FY20:  4.1% to 12.4% OR $2.67B to $5.233B less than estimate
"disconnect between stock market and real economy"
now running through the subsets of the tax revenue, which I'm not going to write notes on
"there is considerable uncertainty in these forecasts"
"unprecedented challenges in revenue projections for the Commonwealth"
Michlewitz: why are we having projections for a drop when revenue is up?
A: several components of tax revenue
"the question is, is it going to be sustainable"
"a lot of uncertainties on the withholding side" as job market, unemployment
"withholding happens to be one of the major categories"
"so far numbers are good...but great caution of the remainder of the year"
Rodriguez: range of FY21 forecasted revenue: "that's over a 2 1/2 billion delta"
"we need to select a finite number" for the budget; why such a material difference?
And if you had to pick a number, what would it be?
Synder: a lot will depend on stimulus, as it comes
How the national and Commonwealth's economy responds to any amount of stimulus
"I appreciate the consternation, if you will, on such a wide range"
vendors put more weight on higher end of revenue than on lower end
more than 50% probability on higher end (from vendors)
but when did those models come out? Since last night?

Goldberg (in talking about pensions): "the stock market is not the economy"
And then I had to jump off to present on Chapter 70. You might, though check:
State House News Service
MassLive
Commonwealth Magazine
Boston Globe